footballbi

Lighthearted Football Analytics of the English Premier League

Premier league football

Weekend Premier League fixture preview with two huge games analysed

Summary form guide (after 4 games) with key highlights

Recent form guide with key highlights
Recent form guide with key highlights

Whilst it is early in the season champions Liverpool have the best goals per game ratio whilst Arsenal continue to be strong defensively. Aston Villa have a unique and horrible status of the only team yet to score this season.

The home/away form analysis metrics of the weekend fixtures

 (RAG Codes – Red – bottom third for goals scored/conceded,  Amber– middle third for goals scored/conceded, Green  – top third goals  scored/conceded)

Fixture list using the home and away form guide analysis
Fixture list using the home and away form guide analysis

Previewing each game with key stats highlighted

  • Brighton V Tottenham – Brighton are unbeaten at home with a win and a draw whilst Spurs are unbeaten away with two wins. Key stat – The home team have a 50% win rate in this fixture, 38% to the away team and just one draws back in 2018. The last two encounters were home wins. Could be a great game.
  • Burnley V Notts Forest   – Both teams have one win each, scored 4 goals in 2 games with the Clarets conceding 7 and Forest 8 goals. Only previous encounter in the Premier League was a 2-1 away win. Could be a close one.
  • West Ham V Crystal Palace –  Palace are one of only 3 unbeaten teams where as the Hammers have 3 defeats included 2 at home. Interesting stats – Palace have conceded just 1 goal whilst the Hammers have leaked 11 goals in four games. 
  • Wolves V Leeds – Wolves are the only team yet to score a point whilst Leeds with one win and 1 draw have managed just 1 goal. Expecting a nervous, low scoring match.
  • Man United V Chelsea – Surprising stat – Chelsea have not won this fixture in 9 encounters (56% home win and 44% draws). Current form favours the Blues (unbeaten this season with two wins, two draws) whilst United have 1 win and 1 draw. Key stat – Chelsea have scored 9 this season, United just 4 (3 against Burnley with an extra time penalty winner).
  • Fulham V Brentford – A London derby with both teams in similar form (Fulham 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeats) and Brentford (1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats). Previous three meetings at Craven Cottage were two home wins split by an away win. Average goals per game 3.67 so expecting some goals in this game. Key stats – Brentford have scored in every game, Fulham in 3 matches. 
  • Bournemouth V Newcastle – Newcastle coach Eddie Howe is back at Bournemouth. Interesting historic stats – in the six encounters there were 4 score draws and one win each. Key stats – The Cherries have conceded 5 goals (4 against Liverpool) whilst Newcastle have conceded 3 goals (all against Liverpool). This could a low scoring encounter.
  • Sunderland V Aston Villa –   A new fixture. Villa have yet to score a league goal whilst Sunderland have scored 5 goals.

Game of the Weekend 1 – Liverpool V Everton – The Merseyside Derby

Game of the weekend 1 - The Merseyside Derby
Game of the weekend 1 – The Merseyside Derby

Liverpool are the only team on maximum points whilst Everton have two wins, one draw and one defeat.  The Toffees have conceded one less goal than their Red Nose neighbours. Key stats – the last four fixtures have been home wins with Everton failing to score. Liverpool have an impressive 78% win percentage which must make them favourites. Typically this is a low scoring affair with 7 of the last 9 fixtures having no more than 2 goals. Not surprisingly for a derby there were plenty of yellow cards flying around.

Game of the Weekend 2 – Arsenal V Man City – Some surprising stats from the previous encounters

Arsenal V Man City Historic Analysis
Arsenal V Man City Historic Analysis

Arsenal have a surprisingly low win percentage over recent years (just 22%) but these wins were in the last two fixtures having lost the previous five. On current form, Arsenal have scored 9 and conceded just 1 goal whilst City have scored 8 but conceded 4 goals. Should be a close encounter.

 

Big Jon

Big Jon's pedigree to a football analyst is once playing in the same uni team as legendary lower league player Iffy Onura (Iffy was slumming it to help out a mate) and years of football watching. Born a Man Utd fan now married to a Claret, he described watching Utd v Burnley like cheating on your mistress with your wife.

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