With Arsenal & City in the EFL Cup final, this weekend has some vital games previewed for the rest of the Premier league
The Importance of recent form (last 7/8 games) to predicting the weekend fixtures
Key highlights from recent form analysis of available points over this period (last 7/8 games)
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The home/away form analysis metrics of the weekend fixtures
(RAG Codes – Red – bottom third for goals scored/conceded, Amber– middle third for goals scored/conceded, Green – top third goals scored/conceded)
With Arsenal & City in the EFL cup, attention switches to the trailing pack with some important games this weekend
- Bournemouth V Man United – Kicking off the weekend with a Friday night game. Key stats – Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 7 games (4 consecutive draws), conceding just 3 goals and never more than one per game but scoring only once in four games. Contrast United have scored 13 in 7 games. This fixture has been a scoring draw for the last two seasons encounters. It could be the same again.
- Brighton V Liverpool – Saturday midday kick off. Surprising stat – Liverpool have not won at the AMEX in 3 visits. Brighton are strong at home (53% from potential points) whist Liverpool are decent away (47% earned from potential points). Expecting a close encounter.
- Fulham V Burnley – Key stats – Both teams have failed to score in their last two games whilst Fulham have conceded 1 and Burnley twice in these matches. The Cottagers are strong at home (58% from available points) whilst Burnley travel poorly (just 20% from available away points). Home team must be favourites.
- Everton V Chelsea – Historic this fixture is close with a home win, an away win and a draw in the last three encounters. What was missing was lots of goals with just 3 goals in those matches. Everton’s home form is not great (42% from available home points) whilst Chelsea’s away form is decent (56% earned from points available). Expecting a close game.
- Leeds V Brentford – Key stats – Leeds have averaged under a goal per game in their last 7 matches and not scored in 3 games. Brentford have just 1 defeat in 7 games and are unbeaten in their last 3 games. Both teams have conceded 10 goals in their last 7 games so hoping for goals in this game.
- Newcastle v Sunderland – A massive local derby. Earlier this season ended a narrow 1-nil win to the Black Cats. Key stats – Newcastle are shipping serious numbers of goals (14 in 7 league games but 7 against Barcelona midweek in Europe). Expecting some goals in this match.
- Aston Villa V West Ham – Surprising historic stat – Villa have only a 17% win rate in 6 meetings with the last 3 meetings being a home win, an away win and a draw. Key stats- Villa are in poor recent form (earning just 24% from available recent points) but had a big win Europe this week. The Hammers have earned 43% from recent form but could move out of bottom 3 if they win and results in Tottenham V Forest go their way. Could be a close encounter .
- Tottenham v Notts Forest – Massive game at the bottom to avoid relegation of the two worst teams on recent form. Of the three previous fixtures there were 11 goals and no clean sheets. Key stats – Spurs are in shocking recent form (just 10% from recent games) and only 22% earned from points at home. However they had a good draw away at Liverpool last weekend. Forest have earned only 19% from recent form but conceded 7 less goals than Spurs on recent form (9 to 16 from the latter). Whoever loses this game could find themselves in the bottom three.
