Premier League match preview analysis – A massive game at the top and some key games this weekend

Arsenal and Liverpool are the only teams unbeaten in the recent form whilst Bournemouth have lost just once.

Arsenal and Bournemouth have the best defences  by goals conceded – under a goal per game. Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton have the worst, averaged over 2 goals per game.

Everton are a team to watch – unbeaten in 5 matches earning 87% of all available points.

Introducing the home/away form analysis metrics of the weekend fixtures

 (RAG Codes – Red – bottom third for goals scored/conceded,  Amber– middle third for goals scored/conceded, Green  – top third goals  scored/conceded)

• Leicester V Brentford – Interesting choice for the Friday night game as Leicester are poor at home and Brentford poor away. The Foxes have earned just 23% of available points at home, have lost 9 of their last 10 games and no clean sheets on recent form. Brentford’s excellent home form is not repeated away with only 31% of available points earned away. Key stats – Brentford have scored in 6 of their last 10 games whilst Leicester have scored in 3 over the same period.
• Everton V Man United – Saturday lunchtime game. Over 56% of Everton’s total points have come at home, 44% of points earned from those available. United have earned just 36% from available points on their travels. The Toffees have scored 12 in their last five games (United just 9 in their last 10 games). Key stats – Everton have conceded only a goal per game on recent form where as United have conceded 17 over the same period. The Red Devils cannot keep a clean sheet – 1 in 10 games. The home fans will fancy this one.
• Arsenal V West Ham – London derby – The Gunners are unbeaten in their last ten games (7 wins, 3 draws), scoring in 9 games, 4 clean sheets, whilst earning an impressive 78% from available points at home. Contrast the Hammers (2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 7 times in their last 10 games but only one clean sheet is a cause for concern. Have to favour Arsenal.
• Bournemouth V Wolves – The Cherries have earned 58% from available points at home, scoring in 8 games with 4 clean sheets in recent form.  Wolves have earned just 23% from available points at home. Their recent form has 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats whilst scoring 7 times with 3 clean sheets. Key stats – In the last 5 games, Bournemouth has scored 14 and Wolves just 3 goals. For this reason, have to fancy the home team.
• Fulham V Crystal Palace – Another London derby of two teams in good form.  The Cottagers have earned over half of available points at home, 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats whilst scoring 8 in 8 games with 2 clean sheets in recent form. Palace are decent away from home (53% points from those available) with 5 wins, 2 draws 2 and 3 defeats in their last 10 matches.  Key stats – In the last 5 games, both teams have scored 8 goals. Expecting goals in this game.
• Ipswich V Tottenham – The Tractor boys have a terrible 18% of points earned from those available at home. Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats whilst scoring in 6 games and keeping 1 clean sheet.  Spurs have a disappointing 36% points earned from those available on their travels. On recent form they have 3 wins (2 back to back victories), 1 draw and 6 defeats scoring in 9 games. Key stat – Ipswich have earned just 7% of points available from their last 5 games.
• Southampton V Brighton – Back to back South Coast derbies for the home team. The Saints have an awful 11% of points earned from those available at home, with 8 defeats scoring in 6 games and 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games. Contrast Brighton who have 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats scoring in 7 games with 3 clean sheets. Key stats – Brighton have earned 60% and Southampton just 20% from available points in their last 5 games. Away team start favourite.
• Aston Villa V Chelsea – Villa’s recent form is reasonable (3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats) whilst scoring in 8 goals.  Chelsea 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats scoring in 7 games with 1 just clean sheet. Key stat – both teams have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games so expecting goals in this game.
• Newcastle V Notts Forest  – The stats predict a close encounter as both teams have 7 wins and 5 clean sheets in in their last 10 games. Key stats – Newcastle have 3 defeats in their last 5 games so are desperately need a win soon.

Man City V Liverpool – Surprising stat – Liverpool are winless in their last 8 visits to the Eithad

On historic form, a home win or a draw is this most likely outcome. City have scored 20 and conceded only 7 goals, although the average goals per game is over 3.  On current form City are excellent at home earning 72% from available points but are red for goals conceded at home meaning they are vulnerable to conceding goals at home. Liverpool are in excellent away form, earning 76% of available points on their travels and are green for goals scored away- meaning they tend to score in away games. Key stats – Both City and Liverpool  have found the net in all their last 10 games. Expecting some goals but maybe not too many.