Predicting Premier League matches is not easy with four “derby” games including the Manchester derby

Liverpool are the only teams unbeaten in the recent form. Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Chelsea have the best defences by fewest goals conceded.

Introducing the home/away form analysis metrics of the weekend fixtures

 (RAG Codes – Red – bottom third for goals scored/conceded,  Amber– middle third for goals scored/conceded, Green  – top third goals  scored/conceded)

• Everton V Arsenal – This Saturday lunchtime kick off could be a low scoring encounter. Recent form for Everton is just 1 defeat in 5 (4 draws). Key stats – Everton do not score many but not many teams scored against them at home whilst Arsenal are amber for goals conceded away so it is  reasonable to expect a low scoring match.
• Crystal Palace V Brighton – Derby 1 -Not geographically a local derby but the intense rivalry qualifies it as one.  Recent form shows a great picture for the Eagles unbeaten in 4 (3 wins, 1 draw) conceding only 2 goals. Brighton are in in decent away form (51% from available points). In their last ten games Palace have scored in 9 games and Brighton 7 times so expecting some goals in this one.
• Ipswich V Wolves  – Both teams had moral boosting wins this week.  Ipswich are amber for goals scored meaning they do not score enough at home. Wolves have earned just 33% from available points away. In their last ten games Ipswich have scored in 7 games and Wolves 8 times so hopefully of goals in this game.
• West Ham V Bournemouth – On recent form the Hammers are favourites (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats) as Bournemouth are winless in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats). Key stats – West Ham are goals lite on recent form (averaging under a goal per game) and are amber for goals scored at home but conceded just 3 in the same period. The stats favour the Hammers.
• Aston Villa V Notts Forest – Derby 2 – this Midlands derby could be a close encounter with both teams in good form.  Both teams have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games with Villa scoring 5 times and Forest 4 times.
• Brentford V Chelsea – Derby 3 – a London derby and another tight game. In their last five games the Bees have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat whilst Chelsea are marginally better with 3 wins and 2 defeats. Key stats – the Bees at good at home (earning 53% of all available points) whilst Chelsea are decent away (earning 47% of available away points).
• Fulham V Liverpool – Fulham are good at home (51% from available points) whereas Liverpool are excellent way (earning 78% on their travels) and amber for goals conceded. Key stats have Liverpool as favourites but the Cottagers have scored in 4 of their last 5 games so will be no pushover.
• Tottenham V Southampton – Two out of form teams with no wins in their last 4 games. Spurs are not great at home (earning just 40% of available points) but Southampton are shocking on their travels (earning 11% of available points).
• Leicester City V Newcastle – The Monday night game.  The amber traffic light means the Foxes do not score enough goals at home. They are on a run of 7 consecutive defeats. Leicester have earned just 20% from available points at home whereas Newcastle have earned a respectable 53% on their travels.

Man United V Man City – The Manchester derby weekend – And the dirtiest team is?

United are the dirtiest team on yellow cards only. The Reds have 42 yellows to the Blues 28 with an 8 to 2 ratio in last season’s 3 nil defeat. Historic form favours the Blues with a 63% away win rate. Worrying stat for United fans as they are amber for goals scored at home meaning they are struggling to find the net at Old Trafford. Just 6 home goals scored in the last 8 derby fixtures to their opponents 12.  Key stat contrast – City have no trouble scoring with 21 goals to United’s 14 in the last 10 games.  The stats have to make City favourites.