Previewing the weekend Premier League fixtures with analytics

Man United and Bournemouth the only unbeaten teams in their last six games. Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves have no wins over this period whilst Burnley and Crystal Palace have just one win in this period.

The home/away form analysis metrics of the weekend fixtures

 (RAG Codes – Red – bottom third for goals scored/conceded,  Amber– middle third for goals scored/conceded, Green  – top third goals  scored/conceded)

• Aston Villa V Leeds – Two teams in similar recent form earning 44% from points available. Key stats – on recent form, Leeds have failed to score in just 1 game whilst Villa are struggling for goals, just 4 in 6 games. Villa have only conceded 3 over this period and never more than 1 per game. Could be a low scoring game.
• Brentford  V Brighton – Battle of two clubs with reputations for using analytics at the heart of their strategies. Historically a close encounter (2 home wins, 1 away win, 1 draw). Brighton are in a slump earning just 17% of points available in their last 6 games whilst Brentford have earned a strong 56% from their recent games. The Bees are strong at home earning 64% from points available whilst Brighton travel badly (just 26% points on their travels). Home team start favourite.
• Chelsea V Burnley – The last two encounters were both scoring draws.  Chelsea are in good recent form (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat) whilst the Clarets have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. Key stats – Chelsea have scored in all their last 6 games whilst Burnley have scored in 4 of their last 6 games but conceded in every one. Have to favour the home team.
• West Ham V Bournemouth – Last two meetings both score draws. Key stat – Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 6 games (4 wins, 2 draws) earning 78% points from those available. The Hammers have earned a creditable 56% from their available points.
• Man City V Newcastle – Saturday night game – City have a 100% result in this fixture – 8 straight wins, scoring 24, conceding just 2 goals.
• Crystal Palace V Wolves – 5 straight wins for the home side in this fixture. Both teams are struggling for form. Palace earning 28% of points from recent games with Wolves on just 20% points earned. Hard to predict.
• Notts Forest V Liverpool – Last year’s meeting was a 1-1 draw. Key stats – Liverpool have scored in 5 of their last 6 games whilst Forest have a new coach in charge which makes predictions difficult. My prediction is a close fought game.
• Sunderland V Fulham – Back to back defeats for the Black Cats should not take away from an excellent season having already reached 36 points for the season which should see survival for another season. Fulham on 34 points, have no clean sheets in their last 6 games and 3 consecutive defeats. Expecting goals.
• Everton V Man United – Monday night match – The Toffees have not won this fixture in 4 meetings with last season a 2-2 draw. Key stat – United are unbeaten in 6 (4 wins, 2 draws). United have earned an impressive 78% points in recent games whilst the Toffees have a decent 50% from their available points. Should be a close game.

Tottenham V Arsenal – Wobbly time for the Gunners based on recent form against their bitter rivals with a new head coach in charge

On historic recent form Arsenal start favourites having won the last three fixtures.  Key stats – on current form Arsenal are stuttering with just 2 wins in 7 games earning 48% of points available. Tottenham have no clean sheets in their last 6 games earning just 11% of points available in their last 6 games. No wonder there was a change of manager for Spurs.  The derby and Tottenham’s new coach game predictions difficult but what we can predict is that it will be a tense game.