Premier League – Performance modelling the relationship between goals scored/conceded to points

Modelling the relationship between goals scored and points earned

Methodology – the model analyses the relationship between goals scored and the points earned from the established teams between 2021-21 to 2024-25

Goals scored model highlights

• Not a surprise, there is a strong positive relationship between goals scored and points earned – the more goals you score, the more points earned. The grey area of confidence around the blue trend line is super concentrated showing the strength of the model.
• What is surprising is how far ahead Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal are ahead of everyone else. City and Liverpool have won titles during this period but the Gunners have not. The data shows how much stronger Arsenal are than the rest of the Premier League. Arsenal being under the blue trend line compared to City and Liverpool, is possibly an indicator of why the Gunners have not been champions in this period – not scored enough goals.
• Teams above the blue trend line (Newcastle, Tottenham, Brighton, Brentford and West Ham) are overachieving on goals scored but not translating them into more points.
• Teams below the blue trend line (Man United and Everton stand out here) are underachieving on goals scored.
• The clubs on the blue trend line (Chelsea, Fulham and Crystal Palace for example) are scoring the right number of goals for their points earned.

Modelling the relationship between goals conceded and points earned

Goals conceded model highlights

• The relationship is an expected negative correlation – the more goals you concede, the less points you earn. However the relationship is less strong with a wider confidence interval and spread around the blue trend line than the Goals Scored model.
• Evidence is that the most successful teams (Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal) conceded the fewest goals.
• As with the previous model, there is a huge gap between the top three teams  (Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal) and the rest. Only Chelsea are near to these three clubs.
• Interestingly, these top teams are below the blue trend – they are conceding less goals than average and scoring plenty of points.
• Teams above the blue trend line are underperforming conceding above average goals for their points totals. (Tottenham and West Ham stand out here for the wrong reasons).